OECD-FAO outlook: Key figures for fishmeal producers

OECD and FAO recently published their 21^st joint market outlook for the global fishery and agriculture sector, assessing the coming ten years of economic development and its effect on fishery and agriculture. Some of the key takeaways for the marine ingredients sector are listed below.

livestock

Globally, the aquaculture industry accounted for approximately 70% of the fishmeal offtake, leaving 27% to the pig (22%) and poultry (5%) production, with “others” accounting for the last three per cent.

In the coming years, global livestock production is expected to expand by 14%, with poultry remaining the fastest-growing meat production accounting for about half of the projected increase in total meat output. The expansion of pig meat production will be concentrated mainly in the People’s Republic of China, that by 2025 is expected to recover from the ASF outbreak.

Aquaculture

Aquaculture production is projected to continue its expansion and is projected to overtake capture fisheries as the most important source of fish worldwide by 2024. By 2029, the global aquaculture production will reach 105.205 thousand metric tonnes, an increase of circa 23%, thus accounting for well over 70% of the total fish supply for direct human consumption. This increase will have a direct influence on the demand for fishmeal and fish oil.

Marine ingredients

The share of total capture fisheries production transformed into fishmeal and fish oil will remain stable at about 18%. However, FAO and OECD are estimating that the total production of fishmeal and fish oil will increase by 10% and 17%, respectively, over the next decade, mainly reflecting a more significant use of by-products and trimmings in the production. By 2029, the proportion of total fish oil obtained from fish by-products and trimmings is expected to grow from 41% to 45%, while for fishmeal this proportion will increase from 24% to 28%.

The demand for fishmeal will exceed its supply due to the expansion of aquaculture, pig and poultry production, meaning that the price of fishmeal is expected to increase slightly relative to oilseed meals. In the FAO/OECD report, however, it is also written that:

“Fishmeal and fish oil represent a highly nutritious and digestible feed component and rich of Omega-3 fatty acids. Due to their relatively high price, they are increasingly used only for some species and at certain stages of animal rearing (for hatchery and finishing diets), which creates a premium for fishmeal over oilseed meals. For these reasons, the production of fishmeal and fish oil will remain profitable.”

The full report can be found here