MFRI Revises Capelin TAC Advice to 197,494 tonnes for 2025/2026

The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) of Iceland has published a revised catch advice for the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen (IEGJM) capelin stock for the 2025/2026 fishing year. After the completion of consecutive acoustic surveys in autumn 2025 and winter 2026, scientists now advise that total catches should be set at no more than 197,474 tonnes, a 351% increase relative to the existing quota.  This update is grounded in the most recent survey data and robust scientific evaluation

Why the Advice has Changed

MFRI’s advice follows its standard approach to fisheries recommendations by following its approved management plan for capelin.

The revised capelin catch advice reflects three main elements:

1. Dual Acoustic Survey Estimates – The size of the mature component of the capelin stock was estimated through acoustic surveys conducted in autumn 2025 and winter 2026. These surveys are the principal source of quantitative data on stock size and distribution used for the current assessment.

2. Harvest Control Rule Application – The capelin Harvest Control Rule (HCR) underpinning the management plan aims to ensure, with at least 95% probability, that the spawning stock biomass (SSB) remains above the defined Blim limit reference point of 114,000 tonnes after fishing. Model projections that incorporate survey results and predation dynamics indicate that this condition is met at the recommended catch level of 197,474 tonnes.

3. Predation-Adjusted Assessment Model – The assessment accounts for natural mortality, including fish predator interactions, which is critical for forage fish like capelin given their key role in the ecosystem. This broader modelling framework complements the raw biomass estimates and strengthens confidence in the advice.

Both autumn and winter surveys are judged to have sufficiently covered the capelin’s distribution under predominantly good conditions. However, the two estimates vary considerably — with the winter survey producing a higher biomass estimate (710,200 tonnes) than the autumn survey (418,000 tonnes) — and the reason for this difference has not yet been fully resolved.

Stock Distribution and Migration Uncertainty

A notable feature of the latest data is the observed distribution of capelin. The winter 2026 survey showed that approximately 55% of fishable capelin were located east of Iceland, following the traditional spawning migration path. The remaining ~45% were found to the northwest, raising uncertainty about their eventual spawning route.

Scientists currently cannot determine whether the northwestern component will migrate west and spawn off Iceland’s west coast or move north and spawn north of Iceland, or re-join the main eastward migration towards the traditional spawning area.

This uncertainty matters because divergent migration and spawning behaviours could lead to uneven fishing pressure on sub-components of the stock, potentially affecting reproductive diversity and long-term resilience.

Proposed Risk-Mitigating Fishing Strategy

To address this uncertainty in the short term, MFRI recommends that fisheries be permitted not only in traditional grounds east of Iceland but also north of Iceland. This proposed broader spatial distribution of fishing effort is intended to minimise the risk of disproportionately harvesting specific parts of the stock before its full migratory behaviour is understood.

MFRI has planned an additional acoustic survey for February 2026 specifically to gain further insight into migration behaviour and clarify the future composition of the spawning stock. Results from this survey are expected to inform any further adjustments to the advice later this season